Commissioner to warn policing is heading for failure without biggest overhaul in 50 years

Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Sir Mark Rowley, will today warn that British policing risks falling behind modern crime unless it undergoes the most significant reforms in more than half a century.

In a major speech in Manchester alongside four other police chiefs, Sir Mark Rowley is expected to argue that the current 43-force model is increasingly unable to cope with the scale, complexity and sophistication of modern criminality, and that reform can no longer be delayed.

Despite the extraordinary people in policing, who run towards danger when others run away, who protect children from exploitation, disrupt terrorist networks, tackle retail thieves, take on organised crime and stand alongside victims in their darkest moments, Sir Mark is expected to argue that policing cannot continue to rely on the professionalism and goodwill of its workforce to compensate for a system that is increasingly out of step with the realities of the crimes they tackle. The reality is positive outcomes nationally are now less than half what they were twelve years ago and public confidence has fallen by nine percent. This shows that communities are right to be worried about the current service policing provides to communities.

“I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat”, he will say.

The Commissioner will say that victims and communities are increasingly being targeted by criminals from across the globe, with a policing response designed for local threats. Organised crime groups, fraud networks, online child abuse, cyber criminals and hostile states operate across regional, national and international borders, while policing remains organised around structures designed for a different age.

Sir Mark is expected to argue that England and Wales should move towards eight to ten regional police forces, supported by hundreds of local policing commands and a new National Police Service, in what would be the biggest reform of policing since the 1960s.

“The moments that define policing are the moments when it has the courage to change”, he will add.

Moving from today's fragmented, bureaucratic, top heavy spaghetti model to a simpler three-tier structure of local policing teams, capable regional forces and a National Police Service would remove duplication that currently exists 43 times over, freeing up thousands of roles and enabling us to reinvest those resources in the frontline services the public want to see.

Drawing comparisons with the NHS, the Commissioner is expected to argue that Britain would never expect dozens of separate hospital services to independently provide every specialist capability and that public safety should be organised in the same way. He is expected to say that every community deserves access to the same specialist expertise and resources, regardless of where they live.

The speech is also expected to underline how policing must remain accountable to communities – something policing has never questioned.

The speech will also deliver a stark warning on the financial pressures facing policing. Including that the spend on policing has fallen from around 0.9 per cent of GDP to around 0.7 per cent since 2010*.

Sir Mark is expected to argue that years of underinvestment have left forces spending too much money maintaining ageing systems while criminals exploit rapidly advancing technology. He will warn that officers are increasingly being diverted from neighbourhood policing to manage growing demand created by pressures elsewhere in society, particularly in mental health and social care.

“Policing has tried to keep up, made do as best it can to patch over our broken model,” the Commissioner will say.

“But the model is creaking. We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much, with too little.”

The Commissioner is expected to say that the public see the consequences every day through reduced officer visibility, stretched services and many victims waiting too long for justice.

The intervention comes against a backdrop of mounting pressure across the wider criminal justice system.

Ahead of policing's 200th anniversary in 2029, Sir Mark is expected to frame the debate as a choice between reform and decline.

In one of his strongest interventions yet on the future of policing, he will say to fellow chiefs, politicians and policymakers that criminals have modernised faster than the institutions designed to stop them.

He is expected to argue that criminals have adapted, organised crime has adapted, technology has adapted and hostile states have changed, while the fundamental structures of British policing have remained largely stagnant.

The Commissioner will conclude that the greatest risk facing policing is not reform itself, but failing to reform while the threats facing the public continue to evolve.

"The real danger is not change. The real danger is standing still."

*Data from England and Wales